the
environment
Between the preindustrial period and 2005, carbon
dioxide concentration in the atmosphere increased
from approximately 280 particles per million (ppm)
to 379 ppm. Many experts predict that it could reach
a maximum of 500 to 550 ppm.
But here’s the problem. To have only a 50 percent
chance of not increasing the global thermostat more
than 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels, we
must stabilize GHG emissions to concentrations
close to 450 ppm of carbon dioxide. If we exceed that
limit, the earth’s temperature could make life impossible. In the last 100 years, global temperatures have
increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius. Eleven of the last 12
hottest years since 1850 were between 1995 and 2006.
At this rate, according to the IPCC, over the course of
the twenty-first century, the average world temperature could increase by more than 5 degrees Celsius—
far above levels that can sustain human life as we
know it on our planet.
We can and we must act now, not just for those
who presently occupy the planet, but for future
generations. Measures taken today will have consequences that will last more than a century. Greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere between 110 and
120 years. It is a cumulative process. As a result, those
of us in the international community fighting climate change have argued that by 2050 we have to
reduce the earth’s emissions by 50 percent.
Doing so, however, represents a serious challenge.
It means that developed and developing countries
must pull together and compromise. The emissions
levels of today are based on the total current global
population of six billion people. Optimistically by
2050 our global community will add another one billion people. More realistically, our mother earth will
have nine billion inhabitants by 2050—creating an
even greater strain on our global climate.
And who’s responsible for adding to this global hothouse? Developed countries, representing 15
Ricardo Lagos is the former President of Chile
and currently the President of Fundación
Democracia y Desarrollo; he is also a member
of AQ’s editorial board and Special Envoy of the
UN Secretary General on Climate Change.
40 Americas Quarterly FALL 2009
percent of the world’s population, now contribute
almost half of the carbon dioxide emissions. The
United States has an emissions level of around 22
tons of carbon per person per year. Europe emits
between 10 and 12 tons of carbon per person per
year. The difference bet ween the t wo reveals that per
capita income and emissions levels are not directly
correlated—with U.S. emission levels almost twice
those of Europe, even though both regions are at the
same level of development.
One interesting distinction is California. As a
result of regulations adopted more than 30 years
ago, California approaches the European average per
capita carbon emissions of between 10 and 12 tons
of carbon per year.
Latin America is at a level of bet ween six and eight
tons, China at five and India at two. To meet the 2050
goals, no country should have more than two tons of
carbon per person per year, assuming that there are
nine billion people on Earth at that time.
The earth does not care about the national ori-
JOINT ACTION IS NOT AN
gins of greenhouse gases. One ton of GHG produced
in China has the same weight as a ton of GHG produced in the U.S., and one country’s emissions are
another country’s climate change problem. Joint
action is not an alternative; it is an obligation.
PREVIOUS PAGE: SANTIAGO LLANQUIN/AP
The Unique Process of
Negotiating Globally
The central negotiating forum for these issues is the
1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The convention established
the protocol of principles to guide country discussion. Among them are equity, accountability and
