Americas Quarterly - Spring 2009

It’s All About
Balance—and Parties

powers need, paradoxically, strong country as a whole is mired down anchors, and it’s unclear that Brazil by too much institutional uneven-has or wants them. ness and chaotic foreign relations

Mexico, to its disappointment, to experience a major developmen-
^is ^less ^likely ^to ^match ^Brazil’s ^{po- tal} ^leap ⁱⁿ ^one ^{generation. tential} ^regional ^influence. ^The ^{rea- If} ^Colombia ^and ^Peru ^continueson is not that Mexico will have to make inroads in pacifying their M^any ^colleagues ^who ^{study Latin} ^America ^are ^obsessedwith the issue of income
less economic and political capac- countries and reviving their decay- inequality—the enormous gap be-
ity than Brazil; rather, it faces its ing party systems, they may escape tween the rich and the poor that
own “neighborhood trap.” Mexico this under-performing category, but plagues the region. My objective was
sits in the one neighborhood of the this is a big if. to bring attention to a different type
Americas—Central America and the The rest of Latin America—Vene- of gap—one that exists within (not
Caribbean—where the influence of zuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, Haiti, just across) states and markets.
the U.S. is unlikely to decline. Con- Nicaragua, and Paraguay—are in dire I argued that the problem is not
sequently, there will be less demand straits. They suffer from extreme in- so much that Latin American coun-
for a hegemon-partner in northern stitutional unevenness (with Cuba tries have too much or too little of
Latin America, where Mexico sits. one or the other, but that each in-
Ties with the U.S. will propel Mex- stitution operates in extreme and
ico to prosper, but not to lead. opposite ways simultaneously. As
Furthermore, Mexico’s proximity long as this unevenness prevails,
to the U. S. also means proximity to I worry about the probability of a
the world’s most lucrative market “less-growth” future and irrelevance
for drugs. This will continue to ex- in world politics.
pose Mexico to extraordinary crim- It is also unclear which political
inal activity. Criminality will force ideology will ultimately prevail in
Mexico to turn inward to the det- theregion. Market-pushers prevailed
riment of foreign policy activism in the 1990s; statists prevailed in the
or, at least, to adopt too narrow a 2000s. Both eras generated polariza-
foreign policy, focusing mostly on tion; neither generated sufficient
drug fighting to the detriment of socioeconomic progress. Maybe in
other causes. the next 25 years, the region will
The Dominican Republic, Colom- see a new generation of leaders in-
bia, Peru, Paraguay, Argentina, and terested in combining, rather than
most Central American nations face in picking sides.
a more uncertain future. They may or I realize that calling for a combi-
may not overcome the region’s low- nation approach is far from origi-
level fever. The good news is that, ex- having hardly any market forces at nal. Many analysts and, occasion-
cept for Argentina, these countries all). These countries are also deep- ally, some politicians preach this
have lessened their dependence on ening rather than lessening their hybridism. But the practice contin-
primary commodities. However, they dependence on commodities. Some ues to be rare. Perhaps, the current
still face acute unevenness in state are in denial about the power distri- economic crisis will change things
and market development. Costa Rica, bution in the Americas, with lead- and give rise to a stronger constitu-
El Salvador, Honduras, and maybe ers who have an exaggerated sense ency on behalf of the combination
the Dominican Republic are the only of their country’s influence and who approach. But the same was said of
countries that exhibit more compet- believe that foreign powers can and previous crises, to no avail.
itive and developed party systems. ought to save them from the United

Economically, these party-strong States. The leading political parties countries may not leap forward sig- in some countries are internally un- Javier Corrales is a visiting scholar nificantly, but they may nonetheless democratic, and face large opposition at the David Rockefeller Center for avoid political extremism. forces devoid of institutionalized Latin American Studies and asso-

Argentina’s saving grace remains parties. They not only have fewer ciate professor of political science its highly skilled labor force and chances of escaping a “less growth” at Amherst College. He is currently the adaptability of its largest po- future, but also of coping well with working on a project on constitu- litical party, the Peronists, but the its consequences. tional changes in Latin America.