FEATURES
SPRING 2009
Only a year ago, in the
Spring issue of Americas
Quarterly, we were
discussing how to build
on the development gains
of the previous five years
of economic growth. Now
everyone is talking about
how to preserve them.
The cratering of financial
markets in mid-2008,
the global economic
downturn that followed
and the precipitous drop
in world commodity
prices have swept aside
both the optimism and
concerns of a year ago.
Regional growth
estimates seem to get
downgraded daily. In April
2008, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF)
predicted a regional
growth rate of 3. 6 percent.
Within that average Peru
was forecast to grow by
6 percent or higher (later
upgraded to 7 percent)—
for its fifth consecutive
year. Brazil was expected
to extend its growth rate
of more than 3 percent to a
fifth year with a projected
rate of 3. 7 percent. Even
Mexico, tied to a slowing
U.S. market, was predicted
to reach 2. 3 percent growth.
As we go to press in
March, the forecast for
regional growth in 2009 has
sunk to 1. 1 percent. Brazil
has slumped to 1. 8 percent
(after a year of robust
