AsK tHe eXPerts
>>
Fernando’s top ten continued
8fSoft is stronger In the same way globalization
did not herald the end of history, as some
eared and others anticipated, the current
systemic crisis will not mean the end of globalization.
It will probably lead to a multilayered geopolitical
landscape driven by a stronger interplay between
politics, economics and culture. The age of American
unilateralism has come to an end. The U.S. alone
cannot deal with any global problem, but nothing
can be done without the U.S. We are entering into
a new era when soft power may well prove stronger
and more reliable than hard power. In an increasing
multipolar and multicultural world, power itself is
shifting from the North to the East and the South,
from hierarchical structures to
flexible networks and platforms of
collaboration.
9Look beyond the
crisis People today are
bewildered and afraid. Fear
has replaced greed. It is time to
replace fear with hope. Trust and
transparency between leaders and
citizens is an essential precondition for rebuilding shattered
institutions, both at the national
and global levels. This is the way
forward. The reckless pursuit of
profit has brought us to a dead
end. Financial laissez-faire has
imploded. The days of risk-taking
and high living are over. Real needs and the public
good are bound to take precedence over outright
consumerism. Either willingly or unwillingly, we may
well be forced to go back to the age-old virtues of
hard work and saving, transparency and trust as
the foundation of economy and prosperity. In reaction to out-of-control borrowing and spending, it is
high time to revisit the notion that innovation, productivity and competitiveness are the pathways to
wealth and job creation. The future is not a point in
time waiting for us to get there. It depends on and is
shaped by the decisions that we make today.
The days of risk-taking and high
living are over.
Real needs and
the public good
are bound to take
precedence.
PAMELA COX
is World Bank vice-president for Latin
America and the
Caribbean.
PAMELA ANSWERS:
There is no clear road map out of the
global financial crisis. Indeed, the main
solution seems to be increased reliance
on the state in ways unthinkable only a few
years ago. The global financial crisis risks
becoming a human and social crisis, eroding
recent social gains achieved in Latin America,
an average of 5 percent per annum.
The past five years have been a golden age
for Latin America. Sound macroeconomic
and fiscal policies coupled with the boom
in commodity prices resulted in sustained
growth, reduced poverty and even fading
inequality.
This time, Latin America is not the epicenter of the financial crisis. However, the
region is grappling with contracting global
demand, declining exports, lower commodity prices, declining remittances, and
restricted access to capital flows.
In September 2008, the consensus
growth forecast for Latin America for 2009
was 3. 7 percent. Today it is only an anemic 1
to 1. 5 percent, aligned with downward revisions of global growth.
Many countries in the region have well-targeted social protection networks and
these programs are now rightly being
expanded to increase support to the most
vulnerable. The World Bank is supporting
this effort with more than $2 billion. In
addition, multibillion-dollar stimulus
packages have been set in motion in
Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Peru.
If targeted well, these investments could
help spur much-needed expansion in trade
facilitation, quality of education, vital
infrastructure, and logistics directed to
EFE/Toni Albir
