Are
We To get out of this crisis we
need to unfreeze credit
markets. For this we need
the IFIs and governments.
by Pablo E. Guidotti
There
Yet?je
and
perc
es w
(whi It is now clear that the advanced
economies are facing a severe recession
in 2009, with an output contraction of 2
percent according to the IMF’s latest pro-ctions.
1 The volume of global trade in goods
services is expected to contract by almost 3
ent in 2009, and non-fuel commodity pric-ill likely decline by as much as 30 percent
le oil prices are expected to fall by about
50 percent). Global industrial production at the
end of 2008, measured by the annualized three-month percentage change, was already falling
at an annual rate of over 13 percent, while the
value of world merchandise exports contracted
at an annual rate of over 40 percent. Although a
portion of the sharp decline in world trade can
be attributed to a collapse in trade finance in
the fourth quarter of 2008, its severity poses sig-
