POLITICAL STABILITY AND INCLUSION
FIGURE 4
(in order of deterioration in political stability)
ERITREA
MADAGASCAR
PAKISTAN
VENEZUELA
BAHRAIN
SENEGAL
SOMALIA
TUNISIA
GUATEMALA
MALI
TANZANIA
THAILAND
YEMEN
BURKINA FASO
ECUADOR
EGYPT
GUINEA
HONDURAS
JORDAN
MALAWI
MEXICO
MOZAMBIQUE
NORTH KOREA
PARAGUAY
RUSSIA
SLOVAKIA
SOUTH AFRICA
ZAMBIA
Authoritarian
regime
Democracy
POLITICAL
STABILITY
SCORE
2012
5. 67
7.00
3. 33
7.00
6. 67
7.00
1. 67
8. 33
5.00
7.00
7.00
5. 33
5.00
8. 67
7. 33
7. 33
7. 33
7.00
6. 33
8.00
6. 67
8.00
9.00
7. 67
7. 33
9.00
7. 67
8. 67
CHANGE IN
POLITICAL
STABILITY
2006–2012
- 3.00
- 1. 67
- 1. 67
- 1. 67
- 1. 33
- 1. 33
- 1. 33
- 1.00
- 1.00
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
-0.67
DEMOCRACY
STATUS
SCORE
2012
1. 88
4. 13
3. 28
3. 96
3. 91
6. 15
1. 19
3. 51
5. 11
6. 78
5. 95
4. 44
3. 52
5. 30
5. 30
3. 80
5. 31
5. 97
3. 56
5. 84
6. 44
5. 77
2. 17
6. 54
4. 90
8. 44
7. 31
6. 31
All numbers are based on the BTI 2006 and BTI 2012.
( 4. 85). However, as we have seen in the case of Bahrain
(discrimination against the Shi’ites) and Thailand (
uneven distribution between rural and urban areas), social
inclusion is a major factor with regard to political unrest.
In Venezuela, the regime builds its legitimacy on social inclusiveness but fails on most of the other indicators; in Tunisia (as of January 2011, when the country
reports were written), the overall positive socioeconomic
AMERICASQUARTERLY.ORG
SOCIAL
INCLUSION
SCORE
2012
1. 67
3.00
3.00
6. 33
6. 33
3. 67
1.00
6.00
3. 67
3. 33
3. 67
6.00
2. 67
2. 33
4. 67
3. 67
2. 67
3. 67
4. 67
3. 33
5. 67
3. 67
1. 67
4. 33
5. 67
8. 67
5. 67
4.00
CHANGE IN
SOCIAL
INCLUSION
2006–2012
- 1. 67
-0.33
- 1.00
0.33
-0.33
-0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
-0.33
0.33
-0.67
0.67
-0.33
0.33
0.00
-0.67
0.00
-0.33
1. 33
0.00
0.67
- 2.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.67
CIVIC
ENGAGEMENT
SCORE
2012
CHANGE
IN CIVIC
ENGAGEMENT
2006–2012
1. 75 - 1. 50
3. 50 - 2.00
3. 50 -0.25
4.00 -0.25
4. 50 - 1. 50
6.00
1. 50
4. 25
5. 25
7. 25
5. 25
4. 25
3. 50
5. 50
4. 75
5.00
5.00
6.00
4.00
4. 75
5. 50
5.00
1. 25
6. 25
4. 50
7. 75
6. 75 -0.75
6.00 0.75
Deterioration of - 1.00 or worse
Deterioration from -0.50 to -0.99
-0.75
-0.25
0.50
-0.50
0.50
-0.25
-0.75
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
0.75
- 1.00
0.25
-0.75
-0.75
0.00
1.00
0.25
assessment still includes mass unemployment among
the youth and a rural-urban divide similar to Thailand’s.
However, it is misleading to reduce the revolts in the
Arab world to socioeconomic factors, even if, as with
Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, social exclusion and impoverishment of large parts of the population remain significant. In those cases, demands for political participation
and noncorrupt governance played the dominant role.
Americas Quarterly SPRING 2012
37
