Americas Quarterly - Winter 2012

MILITARY MAN,

GUATEMALA’S

REVOLUTIONARY

NICARAGUA’S

By Mike McDonald

Guatemalans and Nicaraguans
(in a flawed election) chose
two competing symbols of
their pasts to address modern
socioeconomic and security
challenges. How will they fare?

ELMER MARTINEZ/AFP/GETTY

former general, who entered politics in 2001 and founded the PP after hanging up his decorated military uniform, enters the presidency with a bold legislative agenda. But with only 58 coalition lawmakers in the 158-member unicameral congress, he is well short of the two-thirds majority ( 105 legislators) needed to swiftly push through reforms. That means the Guatemalan president will look to form alliances with other conservative parties and seek to lure centrist lawmakers to the PP ranks. In doing so, he will face fierce opposition from a Left still sour over losing the presidency.

Pérez Molina campaigned on a
mano dura (iron fist) platform, prom-
ising to crack down on crime in one
spectrum, but both must find ways to
improve socioeconomic conditions.

For Guatemala, the chief challenges
are improving security, reducing in-
equality and generating opportuni-
ties that deter at-risk citizens from
a life of crime. Nicaragua has yet to
experience violence comparable to
its neighbors in the Northern Tri-
angle (Guatemala, Honduras and
El Salvador), but persistent inequal-
ity remains a major challenge. Orte-
ga’s international legitimacy is also
a lingering question. While observ-
ers recognized the election results,
they qualified the election process
as “tainted” and riddled with “irreg-
ularities” and “anomalies.”
In Guatemala, Pérez Molina’s vic-
tory did not come with asterisks. The
of the world’s deadliest nations. “I am
going to work tirelessly for security,
for a safe country and for a prosperous
and secure Guatemala,” Pérez Molina
told a cheering throng of supporters
dressed in Partido Patriota orange just
hours after the election. Still, the myr-
iad problems and obstacles that have
stalled progress in Guatemala will
test the president’s campaign prom-
ise that “change is coming.”
Ortega will not face the same do-
mestic political constraints as his
Guatemalan counterpart. He enters
his third term without congressional
opposition. Given the outcome of the
November elections, Ortega will enjoy
a legislative super-majority in which
the FSLN will control 63 seats in the
92-member unicameral congress.